America’s Iran Policy Is Helping China Advance a Multipolar World
Video     Photos     Pakistan     World     Islam     Health     Crime     Islamic News     Business     Society     India     Travel     Middle East     Sport     sci/tech      Contact      RSS
Search

Mobile phones not to be blocked after Oct 20, says minister

Turkish daily says audio tapes indicate Saudi journalist 'decapitated'

Is CJP in trouble after another reference is filed against him?

Is former President Musharraf on deathbed?

Five-star Abbas bowls out Australia

Can NAB really hold Shahbaz Sharif accountable?

Iran assured of help in tracing abducted guards

A deal again: How US going to rescue Saudia from Kashoggi's murder episode?

Zainab's rapist, murderer Imran Ali hanged at Kot Lakhpat Jail

Saudi Prince calls for military campaign against Kuwait, sparks backlash

Allama Hassan Zafar says those ridiculed judiciary, top judges, are freed

JCSC Pakistan chief in US for conference on countering violent extremist outfits

Forward bloc in PTI?

China endorses Pakistan’s aid request to IMF

Sunday by-poll: Analysis and lessons for PTI

Shrines under the watchful eye: CJP orders forensic audit

Saudi riyal at lowest level since 2016 over Khashoggi case

India, Iran to speed up Chabahar plan before US bans

UET Peshawar Students Develop a Solution to Power Theft

Pakistan wins first medal in 2018 Youth Olympics in wrestling

Shia pilgrims denied entry into Balochistan, stuck at provincial border with Sindh

Iran embassy in Ankara evacuated after 'bomb warning'

Mother defeats son in Muzaffargarh by-elections

Asia Bibi case: Opportunist Khadim Rizvi threatens judiciary, NGOs and the lawyer

U.S envoy met the Taliban representatives in Qatar

$2 bn RLNG pipeline: Crucial Pak-Russia talks begin today

Saudi source: Reconciliation with Iran possible if sanctions imposed

Three Saudi soldiers killed in clashes with Yemeni army in border areas

Saudis 'reject' threats as stocks drop amid scrutiny over missing journalist

On the decliine: PTI fails to clinch NA seat in by-polls

Jamal Khashoggi was no Revolutionary, Rebel or Human rights defender

The question of cuffs

Pakistan By-election results 2018 LIVE Updates

After DPO Gondal, another short shrift for IGP Punjab

Illegal recruitments scam: NAB Arrests ex-PU VC, five registers

TLP threatens to paralyse country if Aasia Bibi is acquitted

In the shadow of loan: Is US trying to create rift between China and Pakistan?

British-Pakistani Iris Iftikhar eyes Gold at British Taekwondo Championship

Trump using Iranophobia to sell American munitions to Arab states: Nasrallah

UK imam fired for anti-Saudi comments

Sunni Ittehad Council chief condemns arrest of Faisal Raza Abidi

Pakistan will continue to trade with Iran in own interest despite US sanctions

Jamal Khashoggi changes the Middle East at potentially horrible cost

Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline

Why has Mr. Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui been removed as IHC Judge?

How to register your mobile device with PTA?

US sees Chinese debt responsible for economic woes in Pakistan

Indian troops martyr PhD scholar Dr Manan Wani among two in IoK

HRW urges Saudi allies to review ties over missing journalist

Australia dash Pakistan's dreams by drawing first Test

Minister sees 8 months halt every year if Pakistan-Iran ferry service launched

Pakistan formally seeks financial assistance from IMF

Saudi crown prince ordered operation against missing journalist: report

Murder of Saudi Journalist: A ticking time bomb between Turkey and KSA

Pak-China Armed Drone deal and its implications in the region

Who is Calsons?: NAB’s best bet in Ashiana case

'Yemenis target Saudi military boat in counter-strike'

Saudi Arabia's dark history of abduction and killing dissidents

China to sell unmanned, strike-capable drones to Pakistan

Turkey vows to put on trial Saudi officials tied to Khashoggi case

Pakistani rupee, the cheapest currency in South Asia: Report

Faisal Raza Abidi arrested outside Supreme Court for criticizing powerful figures

Who is Ibrahim Koko?: Startling case of fake travel documents

IMF warns Pakistan against ‘excessive loans’ from China

“No NRO”: PM maintains rigid stance against corruption

Saudis, authoritarian leaders inspired by Trump: Sanders

Allama Raja Nasir asks government to rescue Shia Zaireen at Taftan border

DPO Pakpattan case: Who is the real winner?

Pakistan With or Without the IMF?

Qatar Airways will continue flights to Iran, unfazed by US sanctions

Pakistan extend lead to 325 against Australia

No threat to Pakistan from Cyclone Luban

Neither Saudi Arabia, nor other producers can replace Iranian oil: Zangeneh

Blasphemy charges: Khanewal police book man for claiming to be '11th caliph'

PhD Transfer Programs: HEC greets US delegation

Shahbaz Arrest: Nawaz steps in as PML-N bets on sympathy vote

Pakistan ex-minister suggests to enhance trade ties with Iran

Imran must keep working relations with Iran

Treason case: LHC orders removal of Cyril Almeida's name from ECL, withdraws warrants

Another surgical strike?

Saudi cleric close to MBS calls for 'peace' trip to Israel

Cleric declares himself 11th Imam of Islam

ASWJ Mengal group terrorist involved in Shia genocide released

LHC rejects police stance on permission for azadari Majlis in houses

Review of CPEC accord underway: Imran

LNG Accord: Are Pak-Qatar ties in danger?

Shahbaz Sharif Arrested: What Next?

Pakistan off to steady start in first Test against Australia

Health Ministry: 1 in 3 Yemeni children suffer from severe malnutrition

Missing Saudi journalist killed at consulate in Turkey: Sources

Is Shahbaz Sharif's arrest meant to rig elections?

Peshawar University fiasco: A shame for democracy

Demonstration held in Islamabad to protest against Saudi govt

Inside story of Mehmoodur Rasheed son's case

What Fawad Hassan Fawad disclosed about Shehbaz Sharif at NAB office?

Sarfraz wants Yasir Shah to attack new-look Australia

What happened in the Cabinet meeting?

In rebuttal to Trump, Salman says Saudi won’t pay US for kingdom’s security

Blackwater plan to outsource Afghan war draws angry response from Kabul

Politicians, analysts react to Shahbaz Sharif's arrest by NAB

2018-10-05 16:35:45

America’s Iran Policy Is Helping China Advance a Multipolar World

 

The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran deal, and subsequent escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran presents immediate challenges for China:higher prices for the world’s largest oil importer , a potential conflict along a key juncture in the Belt and Road Initiative, and heightened risk of nuclear proliferation.

Chinese Middle East experts have also raised concerns that overly constrictive U.S. pressure could sideline moderate elements in Tehran, and drive Iran to “adopt a more radical foreign policy ” (采取更激进的外交政策), which would further intensify sectarianism and extremism across an already volatile region.

One day after President Donald Trump announced the Iran Deal withdrawal, an editorial in the Communist Party’s largest official newspaper, the People’s Daily, highlighted a more general Chinese concern that the move heralds a United States shift away from multilateralism towards a more unilateral foreign policy. The editorial appeared under a recurring pen-name “Zhong Sheng” (“voice of China” 钟声) that is used to put forth“quasi-authoritative” positions on key policy issues. The piece castigates the United States for its “Reckless Disregard of International Responsibilities” . The essay observes that by pulling out of the deal, “the US government ignored widespread opposition from the international community” and intensive lobbying from traditional allies. According to “Zhong Sheng,” this willingness to go it alone indicates that U.S. foreign policy is moving “further and further away from multilateralism”

China’s Catch-22, America Unbound, Short-Term Challenge, Long-Term Opportunity

Chinese foreign policy has long sought to facilitate the emergence of a multipolar world . In his 2017 address to the 19th Party Congress, General Secretary Xi Jinping observed that the international system has become more favorable to China as “ trends of global multipolarity ” are “surging forward.”

Beijing’s push for multipolarity is part of a broader effort to erode U.S. primacy. As Robert Blackwill noted , Beijing’s pursuit of “power in all dimensions” is “driven by the conviction that China, a great civilization undone by the hostility of others, could never attain its destiny unless it amassed the power necessary to ward off the hostility of those opposed to this quest.” In order to achieve this goal, China works to build up its own national power, but also seeks to promote the emergence of other poles to counterbalance the United States (Russia, India and Europe). Contrary to some assertions, this not because Beijing seeks to “ rule the world ,” by supplanting the United States’ top spot in the international order (on the contrary, Beijing has demonstrated minimal interest in shouldering the burdens of global leadership). Rather, it is because China sees the United States as the main obstacle to its primary foreign-policy goal, which is to return to its historical position as the dominant power in Asia. Xi made this clear in his speech when he proclaimed that “the Chinese nation now stands tall and firm in the east.”

The emergence of a truly multipolar world order, divided into spheres of influence, would allow China to dominate its East Asian regional environment, and restore what it views as its civilizational birthright as the central country in Asia. Although the world is increasingly multipolar, much of the hardwiring of international system remains under U.S. preponderance (consider the dollar’s continued dominance of international finance; more on this later). One impediment to the emergence of a multipolar world order, is the stubborn persistence of Transatlantic unity, which has prevented the emergence of the European Union (EU) as an alternate, independent pole to U.S. power. As Robert Ross, et al, observe, a more independent European foreign policy would “allow China to capitalize on the emergence of an additional pole in the international system and attempt to play the US and Europe off against each other”.

Even U.S. multilateralism is something of a Catch-22 for China. On the one hand the United States’ global network of alliances and partnerships prevent the emergence of a truly multipolar system. However, on the other hand, these very alliances constrain the United States from acting unilaterally, and condition Washington to adopt a more multilateral foreign-policy approach. Put another way: Beijing wants to facilitate the emergence of a multipolar world, and in the long term, reducing the ability of the United States to act multilaterally with allies would help achieve that goal. But in the short term, the United States turning away from multilateralism and towards unilateralism is deeply threatening to China.

In contrast to Western elites’ alarm over the perceived erosion of global governance systems and the liberal international order in the Trump era, China’s anxiety about a United States that is more nationalistic and prepared to act unilaterally is not primarily normative, but self-interested. Although it would likely become increasingly isolated over time, an America unbound from the constraints of multilateral organizations, pursuing a unilateral foreign policy based on a narrow, transactional conception of its national interests will be a profound challenge to China in the short to medium term. For example, China is already feeling the pinch of U.S. tariffs ( Section 301 ) that the Trump administration has unilaterally imposed outside the framework of the World Trade Organization. Another concern for Beijing is the United States’ ability to inflict economic pain on its adversaries through unilateral sanctions. As Andrew Small of the German Marshall Fund observes, “Beijing has long been keen to see an erosion of U.S. capacity to impose sanctions unilaterally, particularly the sophisticated toolkit that the U.S. Treasury has developed over the last decade.” The recent sanctions that the U.S. Treasury has placed on Chinese enterprises that do business with North Korea and Russia , demonstrate that China is not immune from being a target of U.S. sanctions.

Iran is a Transatlantic Wedge

Some have suggested that U.S.-Europe trade disputes would become a potential Transtatlantic wedge that Beijing could exploit. However, shared U.S. and European grievances towards China’s trade and industrial policies clearly outweigh U.S.-EU differences on trade. This was evidenced this summer, when the United States doubled down on its trade conflict with China by imposing billions of dollars in new tariffs, while at the same time Trump and European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker achieved a modus vivendi to “work together toward zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods.”

Iran is another matter entirely. Ultimately, the Europeans blame the Trump administration for taking a maximalist approach that sidelines diplomacy in favor of confrontation, a sentiment on full display at this year’s UN General Assembly. French president Emmanuel Macron repudiated Trump’s bellicose speech saying that sanctions and containment are insufficient, “we need to have the space for new negotiations,” and declaiming that “the serious crisis of confidence was opened by the imposition of extraterritorial sanctions by the United States, but Tehran keeps abiding by its nuclear obligation.” At the UN Security Council meeting on nonproliferation, UK Prime Minister Theresa May directly contradicted the Trump administration’s position on Iran, arguing that the JCPOA is the best chance to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons .

China (and Russia) stand to accrue a more immediate practical benefit from the U.S.-Europe Iran rift: the weakening of the United States’ ability to unilaterally impose sanctions. China and the other Iran Deal signatories, the UK, Germany, France and Russia, recently set up a special payments system , which would provide an alternate channel to SWIFT, the primary network for international payments. Although SWIFT is based in Europe, it is beholden to U.S. regulations because of the large number of dollar-denominated transactions it processes. This alternate special-purpose vehicle, which would not involve commercial banks exposed to the U.S. dollar and hence be shielded from potential U.S. retribution, would function as something of a “clearing house” that connected the “Europeans and Iranians as they try to do business.” This demonstrates that the United States’ Iran policy has created an opportunity for China to work with the European powers to begin to slowly chip away at a key lever of UF.S. power—the dollar’s dominant position in the international financial system. Cooperating with Europe enhances China’s efforts to accelerate “de-dollarization” because the Euro is the only currency that is anywhere remotely as internationalized as the dollar. Per SWIFT , as of December 2017, the dollar was used in around 41 percent of international payments, the Euro in 39.45 percent and the RMB in merely 1 percent of transactions.

Of course Iran hawks will respond by decrying that the world does not adequately grasp the dangers posed by Iran. But they cannot deny the reality that most of the United States’ longstanding allies (the UK, France, and Germany) and partners (India) are deeply uncomfortable with the U.S. pressure campaign on Iran. In fact, these allies are so frustrated that they are willing to work with U.S. competitors to blunt Washington’s ability to levy sanctions on its adversaries. With this in mind, the Trump administration needs to undertake a cost benefit analysis on its Iran policy that addresses the following questions. Is it really worth making Iran, a middle power by all accounts, the centerpiece of U.S. foreign policy, especially when this administration has sought to reorient U.S. foreign policy around major power competition? Is it worth alienating longtime allies to take a maximalist approach to Iran? Is it worth imperiling the dollar’s dominance of the international financial system, which hitherto has been a key source of U.S. foreign-policy leverage? If the United States does finds itself in a more serious major-power confrontation with China (for example over Taiwan), or Russia (over Ukraine), then Washington may come to regret that its unilateral approach to Iran alienated allies and eroded a key economic instrument of U.S. power.

 

?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Categories:  
Tags:   India ، China ، US ، Iran ،
From other agencies (RSS Reader)

Brexit Barriers

- presstv

Brexit Barriers

- presstv