Unchanged monitory policy: Is IMF running Pakistan’s economy?
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2015-11-25 14:53:02

Unchanged monitory policy: Is IMF running Pakistan’s economy?

pak monitory

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Saturday kept its policy rate unchanged at 6 per cent, saying headline inflation is expected to reverse its declining momentum. Average inflation, however, would still remain below the target of 6pc for this fiscal year, with a subdued outlook for prices of oil and other major commodities, said a monetary policy statement issued by the central bank. Moreover, market surveys indicate a marginal increase in inflation expectations in the coming months, said the SBP. Average inflation during July to October stood at 1.7pc compared to 7.1pc in the same period of last year. The decline was broad-based as indices for food, non-food and core inflation came down during the period. Large-scale manufacturing (LSM), mainly supported by food and beverages, automobiles, fertilisers, and cement production, grew 3.9pc in the July-September quarter compared to 2.6pc a year ago. The growth is expected to rise further on the back of expansion in cotton yarn manufacturing, strong construction, increased automobile production and improving energy supply on the back of recent LNG imports, said the policy statement. The State Bank appears to have retreated from its earlier cautionary soundings about mounting external debt service obligations, and it is difficult to escape the impression that this has been done at the behest of the government which enjoys basking in the glow of the reserves that it claims to have accumulated. This is a pity because external debt service obligations remain a key area of concern, especially given the resumption of Paris Club repayments in 2017 that were rescheduled in the days following the events of 9/11. At the end one is left wondering whether the brakes are being applied to the monetary easing on account of any perceived uptick in inflation, or on weaknesses around the exchange rate. The alarms bells of an impending reversal of a declining trend in inflation are important, but equally significant is the retreat on the vulnerabilities of the external sector, especially in light of the most recent round of volatile movements in the open market.

pk.shafaqna.com

 

Categories:   Pakistan ، Business ،
Tags:   pakistan ، IMF ، SBP ، Inflation ،
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